Winning at NFL betting is like hitting a hole-in-one on a mini-golf course—challenging but oh-so-satisfying!
Navigating the world of NFL betting can be quite challenging, especially for beginners. The complexity of different betting systems and the statistical nuances involved can be overwhelming. However, understanding these systems is essential for any betting enthusiast looking to boost their bankroll and minimize risks.
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This blog aims to demystify various NFL betting approaches, from spread bets to moneyline bets, and provide strategic insights to help you make more informed betting decisions. As you read on, you’ll learn why most NFL betting systems fail and how to choose the best approach for your wagers.
What Are The Various NFL Betting Strategies?
There are many strategies for betting on NFL games, and some have proven to work well over time. Here’s a breakdown of a few popular approaches:
- Betting on underdogs in low-scoring games
This strategy suggests placing bets on underdog teams in games where the total expected points are low (usually 42 or less). It works especially well in divisional games, where teams are more evenly matched.
- Road underdog to home favorite shift
This approach focuses on how betting odds shift when an underdog playing on the road becomes a favorite when they’re at home.
- Betting favorites & going for the under
Betting on the favorite in games with a spread of 6.5 or less, when the total points are expected to be 46 or more, can be a smart play. High-scoring games often favor stronger teams. Conversely, betting on the under (fewer points than expected) in games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 points has been effective. These close games typically result in lower scores.
- Using advanced data models
Some bettors use advanced tools like machine learning and neural networks to predict outcomes. These models analyze huge amounts of data—player stats, team efficiency, weather, and injuries—to continuously improve accuracy.
- Key matchups
Sometimes, specific matchups make all the difference. For instance, certain coaches consistently perform well against specific teams, and a strong quarterback facing a weak defense can heavily influence the game’s result.
Some bettors use advanced tools like machine learning and neural networks to predict outcomes. At DGbet, we offer similar advanced analytical tools to help you optimize your bets.
But knowing the right strategies is only half the battle; let’s dive into the different types of bets you can place to maximize your winnings.
What Are The Different Types Of NFL Bets?
NFL betting offers a wide variety of options for bettors to explore:
- Moneyline: The simplest form of betting, where you pick the team you believe will win the game outright.
- Point spread: Bettors wager on whether a team will win by a certain margin (the favorite) or lose by less than the given points (the underdog).
- Over/under (Total Points): You bet on whether the total combined score of both teams will be over or under a set number.
- Parlays: Combining multiple bets into one. You must win all bets to get a payout, but the potential return is higher.
- Prop bets: Wagers on specific events within a game, like how many touchdowns a player will score or how many yards a quarterback will throw.
- Futures: Betting on long-term outcomes, such as which team will win the Super Bowl or which player will be named MVP.
- Teasers: Similar to parlays, but you can adjust the point spread in your favor across multiple games for lower risk and a smaller payout.
Each bet type has its own level of complexity, risk, and potential reward, allowing bettors to tailor their strategy to their preferences.
NFL Spread Bet
Spread betting is a popular way to make NFL games more exciting, especially when the teams are unevenly matched. Here’s an easy breakdown of how it works:
What is spread betting?
In spread betting, instead of just picking who will win, you bet on the margin of victory. Bookmakers set a “spread” to give the underdog a head start and the favorite a disadvantage, making both sides of the bet more appealing.
Favorites vs. underdogs
- Favorites: These teams are expected to win and have a negative point spread (e.g., -7.5). For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs are -7.5 favorites, they must win by more than 7.5 points for your bet to pay off.
- Underdogs: These teams are expected to lose and have a positive point spread (e.g., +7.5). If the Las Vegas Raiders are +7.5 underdogs, they can either win outright or lose by fewer than 7.5 points for your bet to win.
Example scenarios
- Colts vs. Texans: The Colts are -3 favorites. They need to win by at least 3 points for your bet to win. A $110 bet could earn $100 if successful.
- Rams vs. 49ers: The Rams are -3.5 favorites, so they must win by more than 3.5 points. If the 49ers lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright, bets on the 49ers win.
- Chiefs vs. Raiders: The Chiefs are -7.5 favorites. They need to win by more than 7.5 points. If they win by exactly 7, it’s a push, and your money is refunded.
Why is spread betting popular?
Spread betting makes even uneven matchups more exciting by leveling the playing field. It ensures competitive action on both sides, so you can bet on either team with fair chances.
How is the spread determined?
Bookmakers set the spread using factors like team form, home advantage, injuries, and historical data. The spread can change based on how people are betting, so it’s always evolving.
Key numbers
Common margins of victory, like 3, 7, and 10 points, are important to understand. For example, if a game hits a spread of exactly 3 points, it may result in a push, and your bet is returned.
Additional tips for success
- Live betting: Spreads change during the game, offering new chances to bet based on the current score.
- Pushes: When a team wins by exactly the spread, it’s a push, and you get your money back. Being aware of this can influence your strategy.
- Strategic tips: Keep an eye on injuries, team form, and public perception. Sometimes, betting against popular opinion can give you an edge.
In this Reddit thread a user mentions successful strategies like betting UNDER on spreads between 1 and 2.5 points, explaining how the under performed favorably in past seasons. It can be a great guide that can help you make your choices. Read more about it here:
If spreads aren’t your game, no worries—moneyline betting offers a straightforward way to dive in.
Moneyline Bet
A moneyline bet is the easiest type of NFL wager—just pick the team you think will win. There’s no need to worry about point spreads. The odds are displayed as either positive or negative numbers, showing you which team is the favorite and which is the underdog.
How moneyline betting works?
- Favorites: These are the teams expected to win, and their odds have a negative number (e.g., -150). You’ll have to bet more money to win a smaller amount. For instance, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -125, you’d need to bet $125 to win $100.
- Underdogs: These teams are less likely to win, and their odds are positive (e.g., +130). A bet on the underdog offers a higher payout for a smaller risk. For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are +105, a $100 bet wins $105.
Example payouts
Here are some examples to show how the payouts work:
- Green Bay Packers (-105) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+115):
- A $100 bet on the Eagles will win $115 for a total payout of $215.
- A $100 bet on the Packers will win $95.24 for a total payout of $195.24.
- San Francisco 49ers (-130) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+110):
- A $100 bet on the 49ers will win $76.92 for a total payout of $176.92.
- A $100 bet on the Chiefs will win $110 for a total payout of $210.
- Miami Dolphins (-180) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+150):
- A $180 bet on the Dolphins will win $100 for a total payout of $280.
- A $100 bet on the Vikings will win $150 for a total payout of $250.
Understanding moneyline odds
Moneyline odds also reflect the probability of each team winning. A higher negative number means the team is more likely to win. For instance, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -125 have a 55.6% implied chance of winning, while the Eagles at -115 have a 53.5% chance. This helps bettors gauge the risk and potential payout.
In short, with moneyline betting, you’re simply choosing which team will win, with favorites offering smaller payouts and underdogs providing bigger rewards.
Try out your first moneyline bet on DGbet and experience the simplicity and excitement firsthand.
NFL Totals Bet
When it comes to betting on NFL games, one approachable and popular strategy is totals betting. Also known as over/under betting, this involves wagering on the total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined. It simplifies the process because you’re not concerned with which team wins, just the combined score.
How does totals betting work?
- Setting the total
Bookmakers project the number of points scored in a game. For example, they might set the total for a game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs at 45.5 points.
- Over and under
As the bettor, you have two choices:
– Bet on the Over : If you think both teams combined will score more than 45.5 points, you bet the over.
– Bet on the Under : If you believe the teams will score less than 45.5 points, you go for the under. The ‘.5’ in the total is to avoid a tie and make sure there is a clear result in your bet.
- Vig or Juice
Usually, both the over and under bets have the same odds, often -110. This means that you need to bet $110 to win $100. This cost is known as the vig or juice, and it’s how the sportsbooks make their profit.
Strategic Considerations
- Scoring tendencies
– High-scoring offenses : If both teams are known for high-scoring offenses and weak defenses, betting on the over might make sense.
– Defensive teams : If both teams play strong defense, the under could be a safer bet.
- Market sharpness
In an ideal world, the betting line should present a 50-50 chance for going over or under the set total. However, market dynamics might sometimes favor one side, affecting the odds you get for your bet.
- Live betting and partial game totals
Totals betting isn’t limited to just pre-game wagers. You can bet on totals during live betting, which allows you to adjust your strategy based on how the game is unfolding. Some sportsbooks also offer totals on partial games, such as for the first half or individual quarters, giving you more opportunities to place strategic bets.
- Environmental factors
Weather can significantly impact scoring in outdoor games. Heavy rain or strong winds often favor the under because they make it harder to score. Conversely, good weather conditions might push you to bet on the over.
- Injuries and lineup changes
Always stay updated on key player injuries and changes in the lineup. For instance, if a star quarterback is injured, this could lower the team’s scoring potential, making the under a more attractive option.
- Monitoring trends and historical data
Check out recent performance trends and historical matchup data. If a team recently had high-scoring games, the over might be a good bet. Similarly, a scoring slump could indicate you should go for the under. Historical data can also provide context on how teams perform against each other, which can be valuable for making informed decisions.
- Line movement and emotional bias
Keeping an eye on line movement can be revealing. Significant shifts might indicate where professional bettors are placing their money. And remember, it’s easy to root for more points, but don’t let emotional bias sway you. Analyze all factors objectively.
- Shopping for lines and bankroll management
Don’t forget to shop around for the best lines and odds across different sportsbooks. Managing your bankroll is essential as well. Set your limits and stick to them because totals betting, like any betting, comes with risks.
Now, if you’re feeling adventurous and want to up the ante, parlay bets might just be your new best friend.
NFL Parlay Bet
Parlay betting is a favorite among NFL fans because it combines multiple bets (known as “legs”) into a single wager, offering much bigger potential payouts. The catch? All bets must win for the parlay to succeed. While the rewards can be impressive, the risk is significantly higher.
Risk vs. reward
The appeal of parlays is their potentially massive payouts. Here’s how the odds stack up:
- A two-pick parlay (two bets) pays out at +260 odds.
- A three-pick parlay jumps to +600 odds.
- A four-pick parlay skyrockets to +1,100 odds.
While the payouts grow, the chances of winning decrease sharply. For example:
- A two-pick parlay has an implied probability of 27.78%.
- A four-pick parlay drops to 8.33%.
- An eight-pick parlay? Just 0.55%—a very challenging win rate.
Strategic tips for parlay bets
- Analyze stats
Dive deep into team and player performance, past matchups, and patterns. For example, you might analyze how a team performs against specific defenses or in different weather conditions. The more data you can factor in, the better your chances. - Create custom parlays
Many sportsbooks offer custom parlay options. Take advantage by building parlays that match your research. You can even try same-game parlays, combining prop bets, moneylines, and totals within a single game. - Correlate your bets
Look for connections between your bets. For instance, if you expect a high-scoring game, you might parlay the over on total points with a prop bet on a key offensive player. - Monitor external factors
Pay attention to weather and injury reports. Rain, wind, or key player injuries can dramatically affect how a game plays out, so staying informed will help you make smarter picks. - Hedge your bets
If you’re close to winning a parlay, consider hedging your final bet. This means placing a separate bet on the opposite outcome of your last leg to ensure a profit, no matter the result. - Start small
If you’re new to parlay betting, start with smaller bets and gradually explore larger parlays as you gain confidence and experience. - Manage your bankroll
Set a budget specifically for parlay bets, and stick to it. Parlay betting is high-risk, so it’s important not to chase losses or bet more than you can afford.
Parlay betting can be exciting, with the potential for high payouts. However, it requires patience, research, and smart risk management to be successful. Always balance the thrill of a big win with the reality of how tough it is to hit every leg of a parlay.
Alright, now that we’ve covered the game plans and bet types, let’s talk stats—because knowledge is power when placing your bets.
Key NFL Betting Stats You Should Know
When it comes to NFL betting, understanding crucial statistics can make a big difference in your ability to make informed wagers. Knowing what drives team performance helps you spot trends and make smarter bets. Here are some of the most important stats to keep in mind:
| Stat | What It Measures | Why It’s Important |
| Pass Yards Per Attempt (Y/A) | Average yards gained per passing attempt. | Indicates the efficiency of the passing game; higher Y/A reflects a strong offense. Recent leaders include Anthony Richardson (11.2) and Patrick Mahomes (10.4). |
| Turnovers | Number of times a team loses possession or forces opponents to lose possession. | Shifts momentum and provides scoring opportunities; teams that protect the ball and force turnovers have better betting value. |
| Red Zone Efficiency | Percentage of times a team scores touchdowns when reaching the opponent’s 20-yard line. | Teams that excel in this area convert more scoring opportunities, increasing their chances of winning. Defensive efficiency also enhances betting value. |
| Time of Possession (TOP) | Amount of time a team controls the ball during a game. | Teams with high TOP control the game tempo, helping their defense and wearing down opponents. Betting on such teams can be advantageous. |
| Yards Per Play (YPP) | Average yards gained per play. | Higher YPP indicates more explosive offenses, leading to more scoring opportunities; defensively, limiting YPP increases competitiveness. |
| Sack Rate | Percentage of times a QB is sacked relative to passing attempts. | A high sack rate can indicate offensive struggles, while a high defensive sack rate disrupts opposing offenses, improving the team’s chances in betting. |
| Penalty Yardage | Number of yards lost due to penalties. | Fewer penalties indicate a disciplined team, improving chances of success and making them safer betting options, especially in close matchups. |
| Third Down Conversion Rate | Percentage of successful conversions on third down. | Efficient teams extend drives, leading to more scoring opportunities; defenses that prevent conversions create better betting conditions. |
| Points Per Drive | Average points scored per possession. | Reflects how efficiently a team capitalizes on possessions; teams with higher averages are often better picks for totals (over/under) bets. |
| Strength of Schedule | Difficulty of a team’s matchups based on opponent quality. | Teams performing well against tougher competition may offer better future betting value; conversely, easy schedules might inflate a team’s perceived strength. |
Here is a youtube video which provides common sense tips and strategies to keep your budget low and still give you a shot at winning big money when betting on NFL games.
Knowing what drives team performance helps you spot trends and make smarter bets. DGbet provides in-depth statistics to enhance your betting strategy.
Conclusion
In the unpredictable world of NFL betting, understanding the strategies, bet types, and key statistics can significantly enhance your chances of success. With careful research, smart bankroll management, and an eye on market dynamics, you can turn NFL betting into more than just a fun pastime—it can become a methodical, strategic endeavor. So, before you place your next bet, take a moment to weigh your options, analyze the data, and remember: betting isn’t about luck—it’s about strategy. Happy betting!
